Ontario has been forced to revise down its projections for new home construction yet again, with the province looking highly unlikely to hit the homebuilding target it set when it won the 2022 election.
The government’s Fall Economic Statement, tabled Thursday, continued a trend in recent budgets of reducing the number of new homes the government expects to build.
Data for a four-year period between 2024 and 2027 highlights how quickly the government’s hopes of building new housing have soured.
Comparing figures in the 2024 budget and 2025’s fall economic statement reveals Ontario is predicting to build 81,700 fewer homes in its latest document than it had hoped when it tabled its spring 2024 fiscal plan.
The downward revision is equivalent to the population of Peterborough, Ont.
Only a few months ago, when the province tabled its budget, it expected to see 71,800 homes built this year. That has been revised down even further to 64,300.
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They’ll remain low over the next few years, the document shows. In 2026, they’re expected to be at 70,200, up to 79,600 in 2027 and up to 83,700 in 2028.
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All of those figures would put Ontario way off pace for its goal of 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
To try and hit that goal, the province set itself staggered annual targets, beginning at 110,000 for 2023 and climbing every year. The goal for 2024 was 125,000; it is 150,000 this year and will increase to 175,000 per year for 2026 onwards.
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If Ontario targets 175,000 new homes in 2026, as it had planned, and builds the 70,200 predicted, it would have managed just 40 per cent of its goal.
The goal of 1.5 million homes by 2031 was set when Steve Clark was housing minister before the 2022 election, which the Progressive Conservatives won partly under that banner.
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When Paul Calandra took over as minister after the Greenbelt scandal, he set the annual targets and expanded the definition to include long-term care beds, student dorms and basement units.
Now, current housing minister Rob Flack appears to be backing away from the target, which looks increasingly impossible to achieve.
Asked in October if his latest legislative measures would spur the industry enough to allow the province to reach its goal of 1.5 million homes, Flack was noncommittal.
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“I’m committed to getting shovels in the ground faster,” he said. “I’m looking at the next six to 12 months to get this thing kick-started. The future will be the future. We’re in a housing crisis. We get it.”
Ontario’s final tally for housing starts in 2024 was well off what’s needed to achieve 1.5 million homes, even with various new categories the government is adding, such as university dorms, and the financial accountability officer says housing starts for the first quarter of 2025 were at the lowest levels since 2009.
— with files from The Canadian Press
© 2025 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
